Embracing the Fog of War: Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency

The unpredictable counterinsurgency environment challenges centralized, quantitative campaign assessment. A comprehensive examination of the centralized, quantitative approach to assessment, as described in the literature and doctrine and applied in two primary case studies (Vietnam and Afghanistan), reveals weaknesses and gaps and proposes an alternative process: contextual assessment. An examination of the approach used through early 2011 reveals weaknesses and gaps and proposes an alternative, bottom-up methodology.