Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran (McNair Paper 69)

In 2001, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) published The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran by Kori Schake and Judith Yaphe, both then INSS Senior Fellows.5 The study, which drew on open sources, postulated that Iran was determined to acquire nuclear weapons and the long-range missile systems needed for their delivery and, in fact, was well on its way to achieving those objectives. The study then examined why Iran wanted nuclear weapons, the threats it perceived, and how it was pursuing its goals. The study also addressed questions that had only sketchy answers, such as who was in charge of Iran's nuclear weapons programs, what was the doctrine of usage, who would decide on weapons use, would they share their new knowledge or capabilities with others (including terrorists), and how could suppliers be persuaded to stop aiding Iranian nuclear development. Finally, the study speculated about the impact of Iran's shifting political...