Long Term Trends and Business Cycles

The behaviour of long term, secular trends and shorter run, business cycle, movements in economic data have long been a concern of economists, statisticians and econometricians. The isolation and interpretation of cyclical movements was the basis for early empirical work in economics, while the early dynamic models were constructed to reproduce cyclical fluctuations. The first econometric models analysed the cyclical path of economies, while focusing attention on the processes that generate trends in economic variables has led to the recent revolution in time series econometrics. Long Term Trends and Business Cycles brings together the key contributions in these various areas and comprises 54 papers published from 1923 to 1999. It will be of interest to economists and econometricians engaged in the analysis of macroeconomic time series.