Vozobnovlyaemye Istochniki Energii Dlya Avtonomnykh Energosistem : Dolgosrochnye perspektivy razvitiya

V rabote opisyvaetsya kompleks matematicheskikh modeley, pozvolyayushchiy issledovat' perspektivy ispol'zovaniya vozobnovlyaemykh istochnikov energii (VIE) v sistemakh detsentralizovannogo energosnabzheniya v pervoy polovine XXI v. On sostoit iz trekh osnovnykh chastey: matematicheskoy modeli energosistemy s VIE (REM - Renewable Energy Model), modeli mirovoy energeticheskoy sistemy (GEM - Global Energy Model) i modeli prognozirovaniya energopotrebleniya (MACRO). Razrabotan metodicheskiy podkhod, pozvolyayushchiy svyazat' opisanie energeticheskikh tekhnologiy na lokal'nom i global'nom urovnyakh, t.e. uchest' vliyanie "bol'shoy" energetiki (tsentralizovannoe i raspredelennoe proizvodstvo energii) na "maluyu" (avtonomnye izolirovannye potrebiteli). Eto vliyanie proyavlyaetsya cherez global'nye ogranicheniya na razvitie mirovoy energetiki (prezhde vsego ekologicheskie) i svyazannye s nimi tseny organicheskikh topliv. Obsuzhdayutsya rezul'taty provedennykh raschetov, v chastnosti, rol' VIE v energetike budushchego.